Federico Pieraccini
Strategic Culture Foundation (Opinion)
27 August 2017
Strategic Culture Foundation (Opinion)
27 August 2017
In a new global environment, centered
on a multipolar world order, the Philippines offers a unique
perspective for understanding the changes occurring in international
relations.
With the victory of Rodrigo Duterte in May 2016, many anticipated a major change in
Manila's relations with such countries as the United States and China.
The Philippines has always enjoyed a privileged role in the containment
strategy directed by Washington against the People's Republic of China.
Since the very beginning of Duterte’s presidency, and especially during
Obama's final months in office, Duterte displayed his disappointment
with the United States’ use of the Philippines as a bulwark against
Chinese expansion in the region. Such a role is something that a
pragmatic leader like Duterte, with the interests of his nation at
heart, would never accept to adopt.
Duterte’s first diplomatic visits and
statements confirmed this direction, with blunt words confirming his
intentions to widen cooperation and alliances with the major countries
of China and Russia, as demonstrated during Duterte's visit to Beijing
and Moscow.
In the months that followed, with Trump
as the new occupant of the White House, Duterte greatly softened his
rhetoric and moves against the United States, sensing some sort of
natural affinity with Trump. Although Duterte has repeatedly shown an
aversion to the imperialist policies of the American colonial masters,
he seems to have a high regard for strongmen like Putin, Xi and, of
course, Donald Trump, among whose company he includes himself.
Trump's victory in the 2016 election has
created a common ground with Duterte: both oppose their internal
establishment and have a tough way of getting along with their political
enemies. Besides this, Trump is much less interested in pursuing
Obama's 'Asian Pivot', a policy based on the containment of China
through economic and military pressure from US allies in the region like
the Philippines. Trumps looks more interested in using existing trade
between the US and China as a means of harassing Beijing.
One of the main events that appears to
have shaken the Duterte presidency, in addition to the internal
political struggles and pressure from opposing political parties, is the
terrorist attacks and clashes with Daesh in
the city of Marawi on the island of Mindanao. What was meant to be a
rapid operation to liberate the city from Daesh is turning out to be an
urban counter-guerrilla operation with an unknown end date.
With internal pressure building up
against Duterte, both from within his party and from the opposition,
stemming from the difficult relationship with Washington, the North
Korean crisis seems like the perfect opportunity to ease relations with
Washington and seize the opportunity to silence his domestic critics.
Manila, being marginally involved in this
crisis, has allowed Duterte, showing brilliant intuition, to seize this
opportunity to criticize Kim Jong-un (without risking a worsening of
the overall situation with the DPRK), openly supporting Donald Trump's
policy as well as Beijing's diplomatic efforts. It is a win-win
situation for Duterte, at once placating internal critics, following
Beijing's lead, and giving credit to Trump.
Duterte seems to have realized that
rather than a firm stance against Washington, a disinterested dialogue
may be the best option for alleviating internal criticism by
US-influenced lobbies within the Philippine establishment.
The good news for Trump's strategic planners ends here. In addition to purchases of arms from Russia,
still unclear in terms of quantity but certainly imminent, Manila and
Beijing have begun a slow but inexorable rapprochement. In recent
months, the discussions surrounding the Scarborough Shoal have
progressed from rhetoric involving threats to cooperation and dialogue.
The situation has shifted from a possible war to a major agreement summed
up by the Foreign Minister of Manila, Delfin Lorenzana, thusly: «The
Chinese will not occupy new features in the South China Sea nor will
they build structures in Scarborough Shoal».
This statement, agreed on with Beijing,
is the basis of a new conception of the multipolar world order that
heavily relies on a respect for international relations. Fair
negotiations grounded on common interests shared by all parties involved
are what unite different countries. It represents a striking difference
to the old unipolar world order where military force and power is
imposed by Washington on practically every other state. Manila has every
interest in developing a new and fruitful dialogue with Beijing, hoping
to solve all controversies related to contested areas. The impetus for
such talks seems to be economic.
The areas disputed by China and the
Philippines in the South China Sea, besides being important for
geostrategic reasons, contain considerable reserves of natural
resources. What appears to be on the cards is an agreement between
Manila and the Philippines to jointly explore territories
that are undisputed by the Philippine oil and gas firm PXP Energy Corp
and the China National Offshore Oil Corp. Revenues are to be divided to
the effect of «60% to Manila and 40% to Beijing in any areas under the
control of the Philippines authorities.”
This clarification from Alan Peter
Cayetano, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, seems to have every intention of
preventing internal criticism coming from politicians and entrepreneurs
opposed to any collaboration or de-escalation with Beijing. Critics are
using harsh rhetoric, as seen with minority lawmakers Gary Alejano and
Edcel Lagman, who are opposed to the energy plan, saying it would be
illegal: «This is contrary to our Constitution because these areas
should be exclusively for the Filipinos,» Lagman said.
Despite the misgivings of Duterte's
opponents, joint explorations are a starting point for re-establishing
relations between the two countries, and seem to be a sensible choice
with potential economic benefits for both countries. As explained by an
administration official who prefers to remain anonymous: «What we are
looking at is a deal that will first cover exploration activities in
uncontested areas, areas closer to the Philippines, including Recto
Bank».
Manila does not possess the technological
capacity to carry out such explorations on its own, and for Beijing
this strengthens its position in the South China Sea vis-a-vis other
disputing countries in the region. Joint explorations highlight the
benefits that arise from mutually beneficial economic cooperation with
China. Overcoming tensions and conflict while making money looks like an
offer too good for any country in the region to refuse. It is easy to
deduce that this an asymmetrical response from Beijing in response to
the American attempt to increase tensions in the region, such as with
the recent appearance of Daesh on the Philippine peninsula, or with the
DPRK issue.
The scope of projects between Manila and
Beijing seem to indicate a clear path ahead. Using the joint exploration
of important energy resources, and creating new investment projects,
it looks like a clever way to create economic and political conditions
for tackling more pressing issues like disputed territorial areas.
Normally these diplomatic negotiations are unsuccessful and often
inconclusive, since both factions are unable to make concessions to
their opponents, having nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Manila and Beijing are using a common
approach to reach an agreement over disputed territories, with economic
plans to jointly exploit the many resources in the area being an
incentive to pursue negotiations. With the alternative to cooperation,
prosperity and dialogue being hostility, with the possibility of war,
there is no other choice other than to cooperate to smooth out their
differences.
In observing mandarin diplomacy, one will
see that this is Beijing's primary strategic approach to all sorts of
matters. The Belt and Road Initiative is the ultimate expression of this
approach, complemented by a series of infrastructure investments in
countries involved in the project that will significantly improve living
conditions of their citizens.
Besides joint explorations, Beijing's
infrastructure projects in the Philippines also seem to be heading in
this direction. Without being naive, Manila also understands that the
more China becomes important to the Philippine economy, the more
leverage Beijing has over its strategic decisions. These projects all
look good for their economic revenues, but China also has a broader
objective, namely safeguarding its interests in what it defines as its
own “backyard», referring to the South China Sea.
Duterte seems to have understood,
probably better than any other leader of the multipolar international
order, the opportunity to counterbalance American influence in the
region through Chinese investments. In addition, asking Moscow for some
help in tackling the Mindanao terror crisis could be crucial in the
future. All these factors seem to have greatly strengthened Duterte’s
position and that of Manila on the Asian chessboard, granting a degree
of independence that has not been enjoyed over the past decade in the
Philippines.
Source: https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/08/27/embracing-multipolar-world-order-how-rodrigo-duterte-revolutionizing-philippines.html
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